Saturday, March 27, 2010 Categorized under Stock Market

Business Outlook Survey : Economic Indicator

Business Outlook Survey is a monthly report by Philadelphia Federal Reserve and it is also called as Philadelphia Fed Report.best for investors related to manufacturing sector.It covers only threee states(Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware).
Answers are given in the form of “better”, “worse” or “same” as the previous month, and, as with the PMI, results are diffused into an index, only this index uses a median value for expansion of 0, rather than 50. The Philly Fed Report signals expansion when it is above zero and contraction when below. As a result, values can be negative month to month.

From Investors Point of View

The report is concise and readable and it is timely also it  is one of the most watched, both for its early delivery to investors for its blend of manufacturing sectors and businesses.
This report works well with Chicago NAPM Index and have shown a high amount of correlation between them.Though the data might be very volatile from month to month basis.This report have shown  more than a 75% correlation to the upcoming PMI in studies.

Get the latest report here

http://www.phil.frb.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/

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Saturday, March 27, 2010 Categorized under Stock Market

Beige Book

Beige Book

It is a report more formally called as Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions,which is published 8 times in a year by the Federal Reserve Board.Each of the Fed Bank gathers anecdotal information on current economic conditions in its district from “Bank and Branch directors and interviews with key business contacts, economists, market experts, and other.”The Fed”s Beige Book provides a broad overview of economy and helps investors predict market trends.

Following are the strengths and weaknesses of this economic indicator taken from Source : Investopedia.com

Strengths:

* Contains forward-looking comments – the Fed districts aim to draw relative conclusions in the Beige Book, not just regurgitate facts already presented
* Gives investors a “man on the street” perspective of economic health by taking first-hand accounts from business owners, economist, and the like
* Aims to put pieces from different reports together into an explanatory whole, giving qualitative measurements instead of quantitative figures
* It’s the only indicator that gives reports by geographic region, rather than just by industry group or sector.
* Most regions will report on the state of the service industries, an area not well covered in other indicator reports, although it is a large component of real gross domestic product.

Weaknesses:

* Rarely is any new statistical data presented, only anecdotal reports
* Filled with measured “Fed-speak”
* Specific industry conclusions are hard to draw from the report.
* Each Fed district can use its discretion on what to include in its report; one region may discuss manufacturing activity while others don’t report on the topic.
* Private forecasts compiled by economists and analysts tend to closely match what is reported in the Beige Book, so estimates rarely change following the release.
This is the latest full report announced at March 3,2010

http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/beigebook/2010/20100303/FullReport.htm

An investor can analyze the situation as we look at the report in whole and in parts .

like it consists of information related to Consumer Spending and Tourism,Nonfinancial Services,Manufacturing,Real Estate and Construction,Banking and Finance,Agriculture and Natural Resources,Employment, Wages, and Prices and others according to per district.

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